Post by account_disabled on Dec 27, 2023 16:39:51 GMT 5.5
Dr. Amornthep Chawala, Executive Vice President, Research Office, CIMB Thai Bank, revealed that the Research Office had originally envisaged that the Thai economy would expand at 2.7% with 3 supporting factors from the relocation of investment bases. Government economic stimulus measures and tourism But during this period, the picture was reversed when the 3 factors above became economic risks. Foreigners delay investment The budget was delayed and failed to pass the House. which resulted in a decrease in disbursement Public investment may be negative. In addition, the outbreak of the coronavirus in China and the number of infected people in many countries, including Thailand, has had an impact on the number of tourists that are likely to remain negative for a long time in the first half of the year.In the first half of the year, there is therefore a high risk that the Thai economy will expand below 2% due to initial negative factors. But it is expected that these factors will have a temporary effect for about 1-2 quarters and should recover quickly. and will allow the Thai economy to expand above 3% in the second half of the year. The research office has lowered its economic forecast
In addition, when fiscal policy cannot be used to stimulate The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) may reduce the policy interest rate by 0.50% to 0.75% per year. It is expected that the reduction will begin at the meeting on February 5th. On the side of the baht, there is a chance of weakening. The value has continued to reach the level of 32.00 bahtper US dollar. During the 2nd quarter before reversing to strengthen and closing the year at the level of 30.50 baht per US dollar. Dr. Amornthep said that the Thai economy right now is like a person infected with the coronavirus, with high fever WhatsApp Number List shortness of breath, and high fever cough. This comes frtourism income that is likely to decrease by more than 100 billion baht from the contraction of Chinese and foreign tourists in the first half of the year. If compared to the period when the SARS virus or H1N1 swine flu outbreak in China, the number of tourists in Thailand shrank by as much as 20%, but in the past the proportion of Chinese tourists was only 7%. Nowadays, the proportion of Chinese tourists is more than 30% of all tourists. Therefore, if the situation repeats itself The impact of this round will be more severe than the previous round. Especially January and February. It is a month where more than 1 million Chinese tourists come to Thailand/month. If Chinese tourists delay traveling out of the country Thailand is a top travel destination. China will be affected by shrinking tourism income. The current account surplus is likely to decline significantly. The Thai economy has a reduced chance of expanding due to the hotel, restaurant, transportation, retail, food, beverage, and tourism-related businesses. The Thai economy depends on tourism for more than 10% of GDP. If it disappears, it can cause chills.
The second symptom is difficulty breathing. from the budget that has not yet been passed by the House of Representatives It was originally expected that the budget would be used to stimulate the economy. build confidence Accelerate disbursement to support the economy. But today, doing anything is difficult, like you can't breathe, with last year's budget remaining low and unable to expedite investment in new projects to create full confidence. And the last symptom is coughing. It may be different from this virus because it is a dry cough. With the drought situation affecting agricultural income Especially the amount of water in dams has greatly decreased in the central and eastern regions. which is likely to affect the amount of rice and other important agricultural products And must be careful that The reduced water volume will not spread to affect industrial sectors in the eastern region that require a lot of water. The important thing about drought is when agricultural income shrinks. Purchasing power of low-income households hasdecreased. The Thai economy is at risk of slowing down, especially in the rural sector and in the provinces, more than in previous years. However, the symptoms of these diseases will disappear in the second half of the year. Because it is something that can be controlled and fixed. It is not a change in economstructure. If the spread of the coronavirus can be controlled Budget passed by the House of Representatives The government can enact measures to stimulate the economy and accelerate investment. The private sector has confidence The Thai economy has a chance to soar above 3% in the second half of the year. Especially from the export sector which will be a factor supporting the economy and driving private investment at the same time.
In addition, when fiscal policy cannot be used to stimulate The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) may reduce the policy interest rate by 0.50% to 0.75% per year. It is expected that the reduction will begin at the meeting on February 5th. On the side of the baht, there is a chance of weakening. The value has continued to reach the level of 32.00 bahtper US dollar. During the 2nd quarter before reversing to strengthen and closing the year at the level of 30.50 baht per US dollar. Dr. Amornthep said that the Thai economy right now is like a person infected with the coronavirus, with high fever WhatsApp Number List shortness of breath, and high fever cough. This comes frtourism income that is likely to decrease by more than 100 billion baht from the contraction of Chinese and foreign tourists in the first half of the year. If compared to the period when the SARS virus or H1N1 swine flu outbreak in China, the number of tourists in Thailand shrank by as much as 20%, but in the past the proportion of Chinese tourists was only 7%. Nowadays, the proportion of Chinese tourists is more than 30% of all tourists. Therefore, if the situation repeats itself The impact of this round will be more severe than the previous round. Especially January and February. It is a month where more than 1 million Chinese tourists come to Thailand/month. If Chinese tourists delay traveling out of the country Thailand is a top travel destination. China will be affected by shrinking tourism income. The current account surplus is likely to decline significantly. The Thai economy has a reduced chance of expanding due to the hotel, restaurant, transportation, retail, food, beverage, and tourism-related businesses. The Thai economy depends on tourism for more than 10% of GDP. If it disappears, it can cause chills.
The second symptom is difficulty breathing. from the budget that has not yet been passed by the House of Representatives It was originally expected that the budget would be used to stimulate the economy. build confidence Accelerate disbursement to support the economy. But today, doing anything is difficult, like you can't breathe, with last year's budget remaining low and unable to expedite investment in new projects to create full confidence. And the last symptom is coughing. It may be different from this virus because it is a dry cough. With the drought situation affecting agricultural income Especially the amount of water in dams has greatly decreased in the central and eastern regions. which is likely to affect the amount of rice and other important agricultural products And must be careful that The reduced water volume will not spread to affect industrial sectors in the eastern region that require a lot of water. The important thing about drought is when agricultural income shrinks. Purchasing power of low-income households hasdecreased. The Thai economy is at risk of slowing down, especially in the rural sector and in the provinces, more than in previous years. However, the symptoms of these diseases will disappear in the second half of the year. Because it is something that can be controlled and fixed. It is not a change in economstructure. If the spread of the coronavirus can be controlled Budget passed by the House of Representatives The government can enact measures to stimulate the economy and accelerate investment. The private sector has confidence The Thai economy has a chance to soar above 3% in the second half of the year. Especially from the export sector which will be a factor supporting the economy and driving private investment at the same time.